Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

2013

The Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) has experienced a remarkable agricultural extensification since the mid-1800s. Hydroclimatological monitoring in the 20th century also reveals positive annual precipitation and runoff trends in the UMRB. While several studies have proposed land use/land cover (LULC) change as the primary cause of runoff increase, little is known about the dominant controls of hydrologic change in the UMRB. We used a macroscale hydrology model to assess the hydrologic implications of climate and LULC changes between 1918 and 2007. Modeling results, corroborated with hydroclimatologic data analysis, emphasized climate change as the dominant driver of runoff change in the UMRB. At local scales, modeled annual runoff decreased (increased) by up to 9% (5%) where grasslands (forests) were replaced by croplands. Artificial field drainage amplified annual runoff by as much as 13%. These findings are critical for water and nitrogen management in the UMRB under change.

Frans, Chris

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

7

Surface Water
Water Quality & Pollutants
Hydrology

anthropogenic climate change
climate change
climate changes
climate change indicator
climate change indicators
climate impact
climate impacts
human-induced
human induced
land cover
landcover
Hydroclimatology
land cover change

2010-2019

Yes

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