Uncertainty in ecosystem services valuation and implications for assessing land use tradeoffs: An agricultural case study in the Minnesota River Basin

Uncertainty in ecosystem services valuation and implications for assessing land use tradeoffs: An agricultural case study in the Minnesota River Basin

2012

Ecosystem services analysis can help recognize the full costs and benefits of land management decisions. Quantification and valuation of services can enhance policies and regulations and, if linked with payments or incentives, properly reward private decisions that yield public benefits. However, the field of ecosystem services research is relatively new and quantification and valuation remains highly uncertain. While there is significant uncertainty about the biophysical production of ecosystem services, there is additional uncertainty about the value of services. This paper explores how uncertainty associated with valuation of ecosystem services in agriculture affects the ranking of land use alternatives in terms of social net benefits. We compare the values of four land use scenarios in the Minnesota River Basin, USA, by combining a range of value estimates for these services with varying estimates for returns from agricultural production. Although variations in ecosystem service values are significant, fluctuations in agricultural returns more significantly determine how scenarios rank with regard to delivery of total value. This analysis suggests that addressing uncertainty in ecosystem service valuation is critical to accurately assessing tradeoffs in land use.

Johnson, Kris A.
Polasky, Stephen
Nelson, Erik
Pennington, Derric

Bowdoin College
World Wildlife Federation

8

Water Monitoring & Assessment

ecosystem service
ecosystem's service
ecosystems service
ecosystem services
water economics
ag
agriculture

2010-2019

Yes

Do Not Have Copyright Permission

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