Adaptation of water and nitrogen management to future climates for sustaining potato yield in Minnesota: Field and simulation study

Adaptation of water and nitrogen management to future climates for sustaining potato yield in Minnesota: Field and simulation study

2015

The present study focuses on (i) evaluation of potato crop yield under present time slice (PTS) with recommended management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer and irrigation on sandy soils of Minnesota, USA (ii) simulation of potato productivity and nitrate leaching with the SUBSTOR DSSAT-potato model in a projected future climatic environment (2038–2067) and (iii) evaluation of alternative irrigation and N management strategies with the DSSAT model as adaptation measures to minimize climate change impacts. Ensemble global climate model output for each of three future mid-century (MC) 10-years time slices of crop growing season predicts increases in maximum temperature (Tmax) of 0.7, 1.2 and 2.1 °C; and in minimum temperature (Tmin) of 0.6, 1.3 and 2.0 °C in MC1 (2038–2047), MC2 (2048–2057) and MC3 (2058–2067), respectively, during the tuber bulking periods. Rainfall (RF) of 253.1 mm in PTS decreased by 29.7, 16.7 and 6.5 mm in MC1–MC3, respectively. Under the changed climate, simulations indicated decreases in potato yields of 19–29%, harvest index of 4–9% and water use efficiency of 22–32% compared with current irrigation and fertilizer rates (260 mm irrigation, 270 kg ha?1 N fertilizer). Potato yields could be sustained at present levels by increasing irrigation levels to 390 mm, with 450 kg ha?1 N in the years 2038–2047; and 326 and 390 mm irrigation with 450 kg N ha?1 in year 2048–2057. However, leaching losses in 2048–2057 would increase (relative to current losses) by 34–62%. In the years 2058–2067 yield in the region evaluated can no longer be sustained with increased N and irrigation levels and leaching losses would increase by 41–67%. Use of varieties tolerant to drought and heat or adapting alternative cultural practices will be required to maintain productivity.

Vashisht, B. B.
Nigon, T.
Mulla, David J.
Rosen, Carl J.
Xu, H.
Twine, T.
Jalota, S. K.

U of M, Department of Soil, Water and Climate Punjab Agricultural University, Department of Soil Science
U of M, Department of Soil, Water and Climate
U of M, Dept. of Soil, Water and Climate
University of Minnesota
UMN, Department of Soil, Water and Climate
U of M Department of Soil, Water and Climate
Punjab Agricultural University, Department of Soil Science

University of Minnesota
Punjab Agricultural University

Water Conveyance & Hydraulics

irrigate
irrigation
irrigates
irrigating
irrigations
irrigated
fertilizer
fertilizers
fertiliser
climate change
climate changes
agricultural water use
agriculture water use
agricultural water usage
agriculture water usage
water quality & pollutants
water quality and pollutants
potato yield
potato yields
water use efficiency
nitrogen stress
water stress
NO3 leaching
nitrate leaching

2010-2019

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